TERROR ATTACK IN PAHALGAM TRIGGERS HISTORIC SUSPENSION OF INDUS WATER TREATY.
On April 22, 2025, heavily armed militants struck the serene Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, killing 26 tourists and wounding many more. In the attack’s aftermath, New Delhi announced on April 23 that it would hold the six-decade-old indus water treaty in abeyance, demanding Pakistan unequivocally end support for cross-border terror before water-sharing resumes.
What Is the indus water treaty?
Brokered by the World Bank on September 19, 1960, the indus water treaty divides the waters of six Himalayan rivers between India and Pakistan:
- Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) → Exclusive use by India
- Western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) → Largely allocated to Pakistan, with India allowed only limited, non-consumptive projects under strict design rules
For 65 years, even through wars in 1965, 1971, and 1999, the indus water treaty withstood political crises—making this suspension its first meaningful pause.
Why India Suspended the indus water treaty
India’s government argues that water cooperation cannot continue while Pakistan-linked militants operate with impunity. Key steps announced:
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Immediate Abeyance
All obligations on reservoir operation, flow-data sharing, and expert inspections under the indus water treaty are paused until Pakistan curbs cross-border terrorism. -
Diplomatic Downgrades
Expulsion of Pakistani military advisers, reduction of embassy staff, and cancellation of Pakistani visas. -
Border Closure
Shutting the Attari–Wagah land crossing to passenger and commercial traffic.
Pakistan’s Response
Islamabad condemned the move as a “baseless pretext” and convened its National Security Committee on April 24 to chart counter-measures, including potential recourse to the World Bank–mandated dispute-resolution process within the indus water treaty framework.
Impact on Water Security
Holding the indus water treaty in limbo threatens:
- Agriculture: Over 16 million hectares in Pakistan rely on regulated flows from the Western rivers—crop failures and food-price spikes could follow.
- Hydropower: Run-of-river projects on the Jhelum and Chenab may stall without coordinated design approvals, risking power shortages.
- Urban Supply: Major cities like Lahore and Islamabad depend on reservoir inflows that could be disrupted.
Water experts warn that weaponizing river flows could inflict deep socio-economic harm far beyond the border.
India’s Strategic Options
Freed from treaty constraints, New Delhi could:
- Flush reservoirs year-round, altering downstream flows outside monsoon windows.
- Fast-track new hydropower projects on Western rivers without Pakistani technical objections.
- Suspend flood-data sharing, increasing Pakistan’s flood-risk during heavy rains.
Such measures connect compliance with the indus water treaty directly to counter-terror commitments.
Global and Expert Reactions
- World Bank: Reaffirmed its neutral-expert and arbitration mechanisms as the binding dispute forum under the indus water treaty.
- United States & EU: Urged both sides to de-escalate and restore dialogue, warning of humanitarian fallout if water cooperation collapses.
- Hydropolitical Analysts: Emphasized that lasting stability requires reviving treaty mechanisms and confidence-building data exchanges.
Path to Resolution
To avoid a full-blown water crisis, stakeholders recommend:
- Reactivate IWT Mechanisms under World Bank auspices.
- Resume Limited Data Sharing and joint flood-management drills.
-
Link Counter-Terror and Water Talks, rather than unilateral treaty abeyance.
These steps can preserve the indus water treaty as a rare symbol of Indo-Pak cooperation—even amid deep political rifts.